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Greater fluctuations could accelerate feminization of species that produce females under warmer conditions (further endangering TSD animals), or counter it (reducing extinction risk).Here we use novel experiments exposing eggs of Painted Turtles (Chrysemys picta) to replicated profiles recorded in field nests plus mathematically-modified profiles of similar shape but wider oscillations, and develop a new mathematical model for analysis.A thermal profile recorded hourly inside a natural nest of Painted Turtles (Chrysemys picta) in Iowa that produced only males (Nat Male-IA; Fig.2a) was replicated in the lab and all eggs exposed to this thermal profile produced the expected 100% males (Fig. Likewise, when this Nat Male-IA profile was shifted by adding 5 °C to each recorded temperature to simulate the predicted feminizing effect of a rising mean temperature if global greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed, eggs incubated in the lab produced 100% females (semi Nat Fem-IA profile in Fig. An Iowa all-female natural profile was not used because all natural and experimental nests monitored in Iowa over multiple years (2006–2010) produced male-biased sex ratios (likely due to the relatively colder temperatures experienced during the nesting season at the monitored locations over those years – see Supplementary Information).Likewise, embryos incubated under broader fluctuations around warmer profiles experience mostly feminizing temperatures, some dangerously high (which increase mortality), and fewer colder values that are insufficient to induce male development.Therefore, as thermal fluctuations escalate with global warming, the feminization of TSD turtle populations could accelerate, facilitating extinction by demographic collapse.

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Less understood are the effects of increased thermal fluctuations predicted to accompany climate change.

this study, or Here we tested whether accentuated thermal fluctuations around natural nest profiles offset the negative impact that contemporary global warming might have on the persistence of TSD species, by examining embryonic development in the Painted Turtle (Chrysemys picta), a TSD reptile.



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